Happy Thanksgiving!
“Oh give thanks to the Lord, for he is good.” Psalm 118:1 ESV
We want to wish you and yours a very blessed and Happy Thanksgiving! We are so thankful for all the blessings we have received over the past year-including the privilege to be of service to you regarding your investment and financial planning needs. We have seen challenges as well as successes in the past year and are looking forward to another year ahead of serving each of you. There is no doubt that God has richly blessed us and our families this year.
Our offices will close early today, Wednesday, at 3:00pm and will be closed Thanksgiving Day as well as Friday, November 29th in observance of the Thanksgiving Holiday. We will be back to usual again on Monday, December 2nd.
Year-End is Almost Here!
Next Monday is already December 2nd and 2024 will be over before we know it! If you have not yet scheduled a personal year-end update/outlook meeting, now would be the time to schedule your review during the month of December. Email or call us today to schedule a time that will best fit your schedule.
Navigating the Current Bitcoin Experiment: A Strategic Portfolio Adjustment
Last week, we introduced a small Bitcoin position into portfolios through the ETF IBIT—a decision that reflects a notable shift in our stance. Historically, we have been against holding Bitcoin, as we did not view it as a meaningful investment. However, recent developments have prompted us to alter our near-term view.
We are increasingly concerned about emerging financial engineering strategies that the market is not only tolerating but actively encouraging. These strategies, in our view, could have unprecedented and dramatic impacts if allowed to persist. What is occurring in Bitcoin markets appears to be unlike anything previously possible in human history, at least on the scale we foresee ahead.
In traditional markets, attempts to manipulate prices have always faced significant barriers and quickly come to an end, as sustaining manipulation is nearly impossible, especially as markets grow larger. For example:
- In commodities, participants must deal with physical goods, including costly storage, making market manipulation difficult and often illegal. While physical goods can be traded on paper through what are known as futures contracts, this market is heavily regulated to prevent manipulation.
- In stock markets, a company can issue new shares to dilute an investor’s efforts to manipulate a higher share price, preventing lasting price manipulation. Moreover, such manipulation by investors is illegal.
Bitcoin, however, presents a unique situation:
- There are minimal storage costs, and taking delivery is seamless.
- It operates without a controlling entity, and its supply is finite and slow to increase due to mining limits.
- The current market size is small enough for some companies to exploit these characteristics.
- Little to no regulation or oversight exists at the moment, as old laws are still being relied upon for an “asset” that was likely incomprehensible when related laws were first written.
The Loop: Financial Engineering
Some companies are engaging in large-scale financial engineering experiments, which, in our opinion, are currently unrestrained by existing laws. The new incoming administration is seen as an advocate for the space, which could bring needed regulations and we view this as potentially being able to end this “loop.”
These companies have self-defined themselves as being a part of the “Bitcoin Standard.” The market is allowing these firms to issue massive amounts, at least relative to the Bitcoin market as a whole, of convertible bonds with no interest and massive premiums. It’s something that cannot be logically explained except that the market is willingly participating in legal, at least for now, a financial engineering strategy. The “leading” company of this strategy has a stock that is valued at over three times their current Bitcoin holdings, which isn’t sensible. But, we digress. This is happening in the world in which we currently live requiring us to navigate without our previous bias. After issuing these securities for cash, what do these firms do with the proceeds? They buy more Bitcoin, driving up the price, thereby driving up their stock price, which they then issue more notes or stock for cash to then buy more Bitcoin. The price gets pushed higher because Bitcoin has limited supply yet almost no acquisition or storage costs, which, again, is unlike anything to our knowledge ever seen in history.
This strategy is mainly reserved for struggling companies throwing “Hail Marys”, which we can explain in a later update or in your next personal meeting. We also find it possible that other, primarily technology companies with the largest cash hoards, will begin to allocate to it, understanding the price loop that could occur if everyone starts participating. It will be a self-fulfilling global cornering of a market until it becomes too big or regulations prevent it. Tesla is one of the only major companies to acquire and hold Bitcoin, so outsider companies have yet to begin to do this. But currently they’re considering it. And if some start the process and are seen as successful in doing so, many more will likely follow.
Portfolio Allocation and Risk Management
To manage risk, we are initiating Bitcoin exposure in a highly controlled manner:
- Conservative portfolios will purchase IBIT (an ETF-iShares Bitcoin Trust) up to 0.5% of the account value.
- The most aggressive portfolios may build positions up to 1.5%.
- All other portfolios will fall somewhere within this range.
This allocation is not permanent, will be actively monitored, and could change at any time. We may adjust or even unwind the position based on ongoing analysis and market conditions. Additionally, we will closely follow any new regulatory frameworks aimed at addressing this potential loophole, which could negatively impact Bitcoin’s price. Current regulatory frameworks focused on price manipulation typically target private actions, whereas the companies employing this strategy are publicly discussing and executing their actions, which is not considered manipulation in most cases.
Open to Discussion
We felt compelled to share this update as it starkly contrasts with our long-term views on Bitcoin. At its core, Bitcoin is simply a line of computer code, and we do not see any long-term need for it, especially in countries with developed financial systems. We believe it originally may have had good intentions but is now being exploited. Because of this, we think we are witnessing one of the largest financial engineering experiments in human history. At this point we feel obligated to gain some, if even small, exposure to this in the event it plays out in a way we see as possible which could lead to significantly higher prices. While we have no certainty about its outcome or even to what extent, which is why we’ve limited our exposure, we believe it now justifies at least having some amount in this asset category at the moment. We view it as a shorter-term hedge against an unfolding financial engineering experiment that market participants’ greed will likely compound. We don’t see how this ultimately doesn’t end but badly. However, we also believe we may have quite sometime before the end becomes a concern as the market continues to be exuberant over further capital raises by these companies.
If you would like a deeper dive into our rationale, including why we made this move despite our previous stance on Bitcoin, please do not hesitate to reach out. We are happy to discuss how this decision aligns with your portfolio objectives and risk tolerance. We will keep you posted.
We hope you all have time this Thanksgiving to spend some extra time with family and reflect on all that we have to be thankful for this year.
God Bless,
Your TEAM at F.I.G. Financial Advisory Services, Inc.
This update expresses the views of the author(s) as of the date indicated and such views are subject to change without notice. F.I.G. Financial Advisory Services, Inc. (F.I.G.) has no duty or obligation to update the information contained herein. Further, no representation has been made, and it should not be assumed, that past investment performance is an indication of future results. Moreover, wherever there is the potential for profit there is also the possibility of loss. This information is being made available for educational purposes only and should not be used for any other purpose. The information contained herein does not constitute and should not be construed as an offering of advisory services or an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any securities or related financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Certain information contained herein concerning economic trends and performance is based on or derived from information provided by independent third-party sources. F.I.G. believes that the sources from which such information has been obtained are reliable; however, it cannot guarantee the accuracy of such information and has not independently verified the accuracy or completeness of such information or the assumptions on which such information is based. F.I.G. made attempts to show sources and links to that data, when possible. However, F.I.G. cannot guarantee or be held liable when accessing those links, as it is not the property of or maintained by the author(s). This update, including the information contained herein, may not be copied, reproduced, republished, or posted in whole or in part, in any form without the prior written consent of F.I.G.
Uncertainty and Volatility